New Report: Climate Security Scenarios in the Balkans

The Balkans region will experience significant climate change-related hazards, including droughts, heatwaves, tropical storms, and wildfires. Given the region’s reliance on hydropower, and its position as a highly trafficked land route for migration to the European Union, these climate impacts could result in cascading security risks. In an interactive scenario exercise hosted by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Expert Group, adelphi, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the Berlin Climate Security Conference - hosted by adelphi and the German Federal Foreign Office - in October 2022, exercise participants identified two of the most important, or diagnostic, and uncertain drivers of change in the region – primary external investment sources (e.g. European Union [EU]/NATO or China) and regional cohesion. Participants then created four future scenarios which explored how these drivers would combine with climate impacts to create security risks. Analysis of these scenarios yielded five key recommendations for NATO countries and EU leaders: 

Briefer: How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach

This briefer explores the complex and multicausal drivers of migration–from escaping violence to displacement caused by climate change–and suggests how the United States can reform its immigration policies to mitigate the risks of weaponized climate-driven migration.

Water and Sabotage in Paradise: Greece’s Hidden Climate Conflict

Greece’s islands might seem like unlikely settings for a wild years-long sabotage campaign, but the explosions tell a different story. By Peter Schwartzstein In late July, a person or persons unknown detonated a bomb alongside the undersea Salamina-to-Aegina water pipeline…

European External Action Service building a Climate Change and Defence Roadmap

This is a cross-post from the Planetary Security Initiative In an attempt to address the links between climate change and defence,  the European External Action Service (EEAS) has submitted a Climate Change and Defence Roadmap. With this roadmap, the EEAS proposes to…