New Report: Climate Security Scenarios in the Balkans

The Balkans region will experience significant climate change-related hazards, including droughts, heatwaves, tropical storms, and wildfires. Given the region’s reliance on hydropower, and its position as a highly trafficked land route for migration to the European Union, these climate impacts could result in cascading security risks. In an interactive scenario exercise hosted by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Expert Group, adelphi, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the Berlin Climate Security Conference - hosted by adelphi and the German Federal Foreign Office - in October 2022, exercise participants identified two of the most important, or diagnostic, and uncertain drivers of change in the region – primary external investment sources (e.g. European Union [EU]/NATO or China) and regional cohesion. Participants then created four future scenarios which explored how these drivers would combine with climate impacts to create security risks. Analysis of these scenarios yielded five key recommendations for NATO countries and EU leaders: 

Call for Submissions: Young Leaders: NATO and Climate Security in my Backyard

By Elsa Barron Are you a young person concerned about the impacts of climate change on well-being and security in your home community? Is your community pursuing innovative approaches to managing climate risks that increase safety and security for your…

Summer Heatwave Underscores Importance of NATO’s Climate Security Focus

By Erin Sikorsky On July 18, the UK Royal Air Force halted flights out of its largest airbase because the ‘runway had melted’ – a line my colleagues suggested they’d expect to read in a dystopian science fiction novel about…

IMCCS and NATO at the Munich Security Conference on the Eve of Conflict: Addressing Catastrophic Risks

MSC, Munich Security Conference, Hotel Bayerischer Hof, Fürstensalon. Source: Elsa Barron, International Military Council on Climate and Security, Feb 18, 2022. By Elsa Barron The threat of a likely Russian invasion of Ukraine hung over the recent 2022 Munich Security…

Converging Climate Risks: Government, Military, and Business at NATO 2030

Afghan Air Force and NATO mentors battle floods. July 29, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo by Lt. Col. Jimmie Barrow/RELEASED) By Elsa Barron and Lily Feldman There are few challenges more “transatlantic” in nature than the climate crisis. No single…

New Climate Security Report has Implications for NATO and COP26

By Danice Ball and Lily Feldman Earlier this month, the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) released the World Climate and Security Report (WCSR) 2021, the second in an ongoing series of annual reports.…

Security Highlights from the Leaders Summit on Climate

U.S. President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. kicks off the virtual Leaders Summit on Climate in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2021.  By Erin Sikorsky Last week’s Leaders Summit on Climate made history for many reasons -- because of the number…

A Climate Security Plan for NATO: Collective Defense for the 21st Century

This is an excerpt from an article published in Environmental Affairs, a journal from Policy Exchange By Erin Sikorsky and Sherri Goodman Since its founding in 1949, the core organising principle of NATO has remained the same: collective defense. An…